A warning to soc-cons.
My own view on how to maintain the winning coalition is Grover Norquist's: the "leave-us-alone" strategy, which happens to fit our original Constitution (as amended). This entails leaving gay marriage (which I support) to the states...
Too late! Gay marriage is already spilled outside of the states. When Massachussets legalized same-sex marriage it set up a time bomb of federal proportions. In fact, I am surprised the legal bomb has not yet exploded.
What I see coming up are two same-sex spouses from Massachussetts moving into another stete. They then demand treatment as a married couple and when they do not get it, they run to the courts demanding the full-faith and credit clause of the Constitution be enforced. It will happen, when is the question.
This makes it a federal issue that state constitutions will not be able to resist. This means federal action must be taken to protect a state's decision on this topic. An federal marriage amendment should state the only marriages enforceable via full-faith and credit are man-woman unions. This does not stop any state from allowing same sex marriages in its jurisdictions, it stops one state from dictating to the other 49 what marriage should be.