Friday, February 24, 2006

A Coup in Progress?

Reports are flying all over that a coup is in progress in the Philippines. Reports seem to indicate President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's (PGMA) government is weathering the storm. Multiple blogs are covering the events.

Bob at Mindanao Blog reports on a minor anti-PGMA protest in Davao City. Wretchard at The Belmont Club spends two blogs noting that PGMA has declared a state of emergency in the Philippines. Of course, Rizalist at Philippine Commentary is in the thick of things and is liveblogging it all. His latest blog is one noting that former President Corazon Aquino is asking PGMA to resign. Ha! President Aquino was quite ineffectual in power and survived multiple coup attempts.

The Philippine Peso is now declining in value and the latest I saw it was at 52.150 Pesos/$. If the coup attempts do bring down PGMA then expect that peso to fall further. I was thinking of buying pesos and hedging by buying puts enough to cover my $ at a sell price of about 65 Pesos/$. That plan did not materialize.

Philippine Commentary also relates a statement from the US Embassy. About what one would expect a drab statement urging all involved to forego violence and work things out by the rule of law. The problem is the anti-PGMA side sees that the rule of law is not being followed by PGMA and her aides, so they feel why the heck should they. This is doubly true of the NPA who have never had much thought for non-violence.

My own take is that PGMA should stay in office till the end of her term, but corruption and scandal are as close to her as they were to Erap.

8:44am CST Friday (2/24/06) 14:51 GMT (2/24/2006)
A contact of mine in the Philippines is not happy with events. The economy in the Philippines shows definite signs of life and the politicos are messing it up.