Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Intrade political futures.

Intraders are very bullish on a Hillary nomination. Last I checked her futures were trading at $37.00 or so with a dime or two spread. Now she is at 42.20/43.80. The Republican candidates are stagnant with McCain at 17.20/18.40.

Intrade opened up another set of contracts. One being a Republican winner in '08, a Dem winner in '08 and another party winning in '08. Currently it is close but the dems have the edge with 50.40/50.90 vs. 45.30/48.90. Nevermind the third party.

Interestingly there are two sets of futures contracts on Colin Powell. One has him accepting the '08 Republican nomination and the other has him winning the '08 Democratic nomination. Seems like a profitable game might be played there.

The Wisconsin names on the list are:
Tommy Thompson on the GOP side 1.30/1.40
Russ Feingold on the Dem side: 0.20/0.90

This is realistic. Tommy has a much better chance than Russ because of Hillary.