Concerns about the Aragoncillo Spy Case.
Wille Galang has some concerns over the Aragoncillo/Aquino spy case developing here in the USA. As I have blogged recently this case spills over to the Philippines.
Wille Galang has a couple of conerns that can be grouped into three categories
Well, I tackle #1 first. I suspect the opposition to GMA has hurt itself in the eyes of the US. I suppose supporters of the move to oust GMA will call this whole thing a GMA dirty trick (despite admissions by Estrada and I thought I have heard that Lacson has admitted his role in it all too). However, I do not see the US turning its back on the Philippines over this, especially if GMA manages to stay in office.
If GMA is ousted I would expect speak loudly and carry a small stick. I would guess some minor sanctions would be applied and pressure would be put on the new government to get things under control and to restore constitutional government. I don't think that will happen (a coup government restoring constitutional rule), but as long as the Philippono government (in whatever form) works against the establishment of a mini-caliphate in Mindanao I don't see the US government (mine) getting too worked up about this.
What I suspect may happen is demands are issued for the extradition of key opposition leaders. This has me laughing (in a way), how convenient would this be for PGMA? Who thinks the current Philippino government would fight requests to extradite opposition leaders to the US for trial there?
So, the upshot is short-term no changes, long term perhaps minor negative changes.
Number 3. From the reading I have done on various blogs (most notably LGF & The Jawa Report) there has been some suggestions that non-citizens or naturalized citizens (namely those from the third world) not be allowed to work in sensitive jobs. Quite a bit of vitriol has been expressed towards Aquino & Aragoncillo with commentators urging the death penalty be applied. I think some people do not quite understand the true nature of the situation and leap to the conclusion that material was supplied to Al-Qaeda.
However, resentment to Philippinos in general in the US over this? I have yet to hear of any such thing. Next Saturday the Empress and I are hosting a balikbayan box pickup I will talk to a few people about this.
Number 2. I think the opposition has to be hurt by this. As I said if the USA wants to prosecute Lacson &/or Estrada et al do you think PGMA is going to fight that request? They will find a pointy toed high heeled shoe up their "puwets" propelling them eastward across the Pacific to the USA. I think with the opposition missing some of its more influential leaders the opposition loses quite a bit of steam. This does not change the game as far as it goes with the possibility of violent overthrow. The danger of violent overthrow has always been there and the chances of it happening do not change with this. A few more people may start to espouse violent overthrow as they lose hope of ousting PGMA via constitutional means. However, Edsa III has not yet materialized and I think most people are sick of coming out everytime someone's hands are found to be in the cookie jar.
Wille Galang has a couple of conerns that can be grouped into three categories
- Effects upon US-Philippino relations
- Effects upon the Philippines itself
- Effects upon Philppinos in the United States.
Well, I tackle #1 first. I suspect the opposition to GMA has hurt itself in the eyes of the US. I suppose supporters of the move to oust GMA will call this whole thing a GMA dirty trick (despite admissions by Estrada and I thought I have heard that Lacson has admitted his role in it all too). However, I do not see the US turning its back on the Philippines over this, especially if GMA manages to stay in office.
If GMA is ousted I would expect speak loudly and carry a small stick. I would guess some minor sanctions would be applied and pressure would be put on the new government to get things under control and to restore constitutional government. I don't think that will happen (a coup government restoring constitutional rule), but as long as the Philippono government (in whatever form) works against the establishment of a mini-caliphate in Mindanao I don't see the US government (mine) getting too worked up about this.
What I suspect may happen is demands are issued for the extradition of key opposition leaders. This has me laughing (in a way), how convenient would this be for PGMA? Who thinks the current Philippino government would fight requests to extradite opposition leaders to the US for trial there?
So, the upshot is short-term no changes, long term perhaps minor negative changes.
Number 3. From the reading I have done on various blogs (most notably LGF & The Jawa Report) there has been some suggestions that non-citizens or naturalized citizens (namely those from the third world) not be allowed to work in sensitive jobs. Quite a bit of vitriol has been expressed towards Aquino & Aragoncillo with commentators urging the death penalty be applied. I think some people do not quite understand the true nature of the situation and leap to the conclusion that material was supplied to Al-Qaeda.
However, resentment to Philippinos in general in the US over this? I have yet to hear of any such thing. Next Saturday the Empress and I are hosting a balikbayan box pickup I will talk to a few people about this.
Number 2. I think the opposition has to be hurt by this. As I said if the USA wants to prosecute Lacson &/or Estrada et al do you think PGMA is going to fight that request? They will find a pointy toed high heeled shoe up their "puwets" propelling them eastward across the Pacific to the USA. I think with the opposition missing some of its more influential leaders the opposition loses quite a bit of steam. This does not change the game as far as it goes with the possibility of violent overthrow. The danger of violent overthrow has always been there and the chances of it happening do not change with this. A few more people may start to espouse violent overthrow as they lose hope of ousting PGMA via constitutional means. However, Edsa III has not yet materialized and I think most people are sick of coming out everytime someone's hands are found to be in the cookie jar.
posted by Marcus Aurelius at 10:43 PM
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