Wednesday, November 29, 2006

One Man's Trash

If we leave Iraq will it just disintegrate on its own?

Unlikely. Hat Tip to Rich Lowry on The Corner for pointing out this article by Nawaf Obain:
In this case, remaining on the sidelines would be unacceptable to Saudi Arabia. To turn a blind eye to the massacre of Iraqi Sunnis would be to abandon the principles upon which the kingdom was founded. It would undermine Saudi Arabia's credibility in the Sunni world and would be a capitulation to Iran's militarist actions in the region.

To be sure, Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks -- it could spark a regional war. So be it: The consequences of inaction are far worse.
Source: The Washington Post – Stepping Into Iraq (Saudi Arabia Will Protect Sunnis if the U.S. Leaves)
That would be interesting. The two great Islamic powers Saudi Arabia & Iran are opposed to each other, one Sunni the other Shia. One a nuclear (if not announced, but supposed) power another quite open about its desire to obtain a nuclear weapon and supposed to be close to that goal (I have read Saudi is indeed a nuclear power, though it has not announced its nuclear status. This is a belief I have had since Pakistan announced its test and recent reading have reinforced this belief).

If we bug out of Iraq and Saudi moves in (as is supposed by the article above to be likely) then there will be yet another war between the Sunni & the Shia. However, Mr. Obaid points out the following possible weapon: OIL. However, it would be used in a different manner. Saudi would flood the world markets with oil driving the per barrel priced down. This would be very difficult for Iran to deal with whereas Saudi is better able to deal with the situation, or so Mr. Obaid states (I would guess it true, while Saudi Arabia doesn't produce much other than oil the Arabian Sheiks do invest their wealth).

However, it could come down to a shooting war larger than Saudi Supported Sunni death squads attacking Iran backed Shia death squads. If it does, look for new maps to come out. Iraq will be torn asunder and the situation would probably drive the Gulf nations to unite (with the possible exception of Oman which has a historical identity of its own) and grab a chunk of Iraq. Iran, of course, would help itself and then there is the problem of Kurdistan. Turkey would probably move against Kurdistan and this would really set something off as there is no way the Kurds of Northern Iraq would sit for being absorbed into Turkey.